Real Estate & Mortgage News in All from Propertyshowrooms.com

Amid Housing Crisis, Mortgage Fraud Continues

Mon, 1 Sep 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Mortgage fraud is not only a continuing problem amid the housing crisis; it's actually becoming worse, according to a recent report by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute (MARI). Mortgage fraud is blamed as one of the factors that brought about the housing market's downturn, and a 42 percent...

Peer-to-Peer Lending Platforms: A Quick Guide

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The emergence of the peer-to-peer lending market is a relatively new phenomenon, but over the course of only a few years, the financial steam engine has originated hundreds of billions of dollars in loans and connected millions of private borrowers and lenders. The industry is rapidly growing, but...

Eurozone rates on hold at 4.25%

Thu, 7 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT

The European Central Bank maintains eurozone interest rates at 4.25% after its latest meeting...

US house figures in surprise rise

Thu, 7 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT

The US sees an unexpected increase in agreements to buy homes in June, according to a real estate organisation...

Halifax cuts rates on popular mortgage deals

Mon, 28 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT

In news that is likely to be welcomed by existing homeowners and first-time buyers alike, Halifax has continued to slash interest rates on a number of its mortgage deals.

Currency Market Commentary - Summary of March 2008

Sat, 1 Mar 2008 00:00:00 GMT

GBP/EUR

Key data out this month:

From the UK:

Mortgages Approval
Business Investment figures
Nationwide House Prices
Consumer Confidence
Bank of England's Credit Conditions Survey

From the E.U:

German IFO business index at 104.8 (104.1 previously)
26th of March EUR ECB'S Trichet Attends EU Parliament Debate
Euro-zone trade balance

Impact of data in the market place:

We saw the Euro exchange rate remain strong against other major currencies as data from the IFO business climate index showed a rise in German business sentiment. This was measured by the IFO business index, and figures rose from 104.1 in February to 104.8 in March, being the third consecutive monthly rise in the data and a surprise to many who were expecting a slight fall.

This news was described by analysts as another indication that the Eurozone economy is continuing to resist following in the woeful footsteps of the US economy. So far the ECB has refused to follow in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve in slashing interest rates in the face of the credit crisis and it appears that there is little chance of any interest rate cuts facing the Eurozone in the near future.

The ECB continued to take a tough stance on policy with President Trichet continuing to concentrate on the inflation risks. In particular, there is a strong determination to minimise the risk of secondary pressures from the high level of energy prices.

Markets responded by moving to lessen expectations for interest rate cuts later this year with futures markets cutting the chance of any rate cut to around 50%. There were further stresses within the money markets and the ECB added additional liquidity to help ease the tensions.
There were reports of European irritation over the US Administration's dollar policy, but comments in public by European officials were still relatively restrained. French president Sarkozy was more vocal in the opposition to Euro strength.

Jean-Claude Trichet has continued to focus emphasis that the main goal of the ECB at the present time is to control Eurozone inflation which is predicted to remain significantly above 2% throughout most of 2008. This leading to an indication that conversely to cutting interest rates, there is a much greater chance that there will be a rise in the Eurozone interest rates in order to control inflationary pressures.

A strengthening Euro exchange rate quite simply makes buying Euros more expensive, the stronger a currency, the less of it you get for your money. The fact that the ECB are likely to increase interest rates in an attempt to control inflation means that the strength of the Euro currency is only likely to become greater, making buying Euros continually more expensive.

The strength of the Euro and the weakness of the Pound has caused the GBP/EUR exchange rate to fall continually over recent months finding little resistance. The fact that for reasons explained above the Euro is likely to strengthen will only mean that contrary to the opinion of hopefuls looking to buy Euros with their Sterling, the GBP/EUR exchange rate will continue to fall. Just because the rate has come down, doesn't mean it has to go back up!

Central bank rates:

UK: (MPC) 5.25%

EU: (ECB) 4.00%

High & Low of the month:

High: 1.3161 (10/03/08)

Low: 1.2524 (31/03/08)

Difference of cost on a £200k property:

High: 263,220 euros

Low: 250,480 euros

A difference of 12,740 Euros

GBP/USD

Key data out this month:

From the UK:

CIPS Services PMI for February. Previous 52.5 index Actual 52.1
BOE Leaves interest rates unchanged at 5.25%
UK Trade Balance for January. Previous £-7.6bn Actual -£7.5bn

From the US:

Non-farms Payroll in March fell dramatically to -17k, was predicted to come out at 70k
US Trade Balance for January. Previous $-58.8bn Actual -$61.1B and came out -$58.8B
Housing starts for January, previously 1004K, came out higher than expected 1012k
FOMC lowers interest rates by 0.75% to 2.25%
CPI for January Previous 0.4%m/m, came out flat
Consumer Confidence came out lower than expected at 75, forecasted at 82

Impact of data in the market place:

The Bank of England elected to keep rates on hold at 5.25% during their meeting last month as risks to the economy remain finely balanced. The release of the minutes from the meeting revealed a 7-2 in favour of no change with the two dissenters both voting for a 25bps cut. The overall tone of the minutes suggested that the committee remain concerned about the outlook for the UK economy and that further rate cuts remain likely in the months ahead.

UK House prices fell for the fifth consecutive month according to the Nationwide building society which again weighed heavily on the Pound. The survey indicated that prices fell 0.6%m/m in March, bringing the annual rate of inflation to 1.1% y/y; the slowest rate of growth in 12 years.
Further evidence of the credit crisis taking its toll on the UK housing market was seen when First Direct closed its doors to new customers. Other lenders also began reducing their offerings with reports suggesting that the number of products available has fallen by half compared to twelve months ago.

In the US, data releases continue to paint a mixed picture of the economy with many commentators talking of the possibility of a recession. The employment report showed that the number of new jobs created fell to a negative 17k jobs whist the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.8%. The news kept the Dollar on the back foot against all its major counterparts.

At the FOMC meeting, the Fed again cut interest rates, this time by 0.75% to 2.25%. Since September ’07 the Fed have cut by a total of 3.0% from 5.25% to 2.25% in an attempt to shore up the economy and prevent a recession.

Central bank rates:

UK: (BOE) 5.25%

US: (FED) 2.25%

Difference of cost on a $200k property:

High = £101,421.42

Low = £98,057.00

EUR/USD

Key data out this month:

From the EU:

Euro-zone gross domestic product released in line with expectations at 0.4% QoQ and 2.2% YoY.
ECB interest rates decision. Interest rates held at 4% as expected.
German ZEW economic sentiment survey more positive than expected at -32.0 compared to expectations of – 40.
Euro zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) released at 0.3% MoM and 3.3% Yr on Yr.

From the U.S:

US Non-farms weaker than expected at -22k.
US unemployment rate at 4.9%.
US Trade Balance shows further deficit from a previous $-57.9billion to $-58.2billion.
US Consumer Price Inflation released at 4% in comparison to a previous 4.3%.
FOMC interest rate decisions released showing a further interest rate cut of 0.75%.
New Home Sales fall again to -1.8% MoM.

Impact of data in the market place:

Data being released from the Eurozone remains robust as the European economy continues to be resistant to the pressures created in financial markets by the credit crunch. The ECB still have had no cause to amend interest rates since June 2007 and many commentators expect their rates to remain steady in the months ahead.

Although there are some clear inflationary pressures within the Eurozone the outlook in comparison to the US markets is much more bullish with further potential for growth.

US Non-farms payroll figures show that for 2 months in a row the US economy has lost jobs. This in turn puts pressure on the FED to cut interest rates to ease the pressure currently within the market.

Inflationary pressures however, are a concern. With CPI registering at a high 3.3% this is a full 1.3% above the European Central Banks official target of 2% inflation. Technically above target inflation rates should call the ECB to action to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy going forward. In contrast price growth in the US slowed to 4% compared to a previous 4.3% in Jan, this is the slowest rate of expansion in four months. Looking in to this in further detail it can be seen that cooling energy prices have helped to curb the impact of increasing food costs.

The FEDs most recent cut to interest rates now leaves the US Dollar as the second lowest yielding currency in the developed world. Since the last meeting of the FED the credit crisis has continued to rampage the US economy. The US dollar has fallen to record lows with the fear of risk having severe implications on liquidity in the market.

Central bank rates:

US Federal Reserve; 2.25%

Bank of England; 5.25% (next meeting 10th April)

High & Low of the month:

High: 1.5904 17/03/08

Low: 1.5145 03/03/08

Difference of cost on a €250k property:

$7,880.41

GBP/AED

The AED is pegged to the USD dollar, averaging around 7.35 this month although as already mentioned it is an extremely volatile time at the moment, thus having an impact on the GBPAED.

Difference of cost on an AED 200k property:

High = £27,662

Low = £26,702

GBP/CAD

Key data out this month:

March 4th BoC Interest Rate Announcement

March 7th Unemployment Rate for February

Impact of data in the market place:

Despite seeing interest rates cut to 3.50% at the start of the month the Canadian Dollar has remained strongly underpinned by record highs in oil prices earlier in the month, reaching above $110 a barrel. This was the third rate reduction in three months and furthermore, authorities signalled that more rate cuts were likely as they struggle to keep the economy growing amid lower export demand from the US. Some relief came for Canadian migrants (and fuel prices!) when oil prices tumbled towards the end of the month in a pre Easter sell off, moving the GBPCAD rate above the 2.00 level. The Canadian Dollar failed to capitalise on the resurgent oil prices at the end of the month, weakening further against sterling. However, we could see a re test of the record highs soon with supply worries in Iraq.

The unemployment number remained steady despite possible expectations of an increase in unemployment levels plus new house prices continued to rise, in contrast to the trend that we are seeing south of the border of falling prices in the USA. There are concerns over slowing in growth; GDP rose only 0.8% which is the weakest performance in more than 4 years and due to a drop in exports. It will be important for those needing to purchase the Canadian Dollar over the coming year to consider how they will be affected by developments in the US. For example, the downturn in the US housing sector is hitting timber exports plus, the weakness of the US car industry (with which Canada is closely linked) will also dampen the demand for Canadian exports. The US accounts for the more than three quarters of Canada’s exports so the slowdown in the US is certain to have an impact on Canadian exports and their economy. With this in mind, clients should certainly prepare for further volatility.

Central bank rates:

Bank of England: 5.25% Interest Base Rate (Next meeting April 10th)

Bank of Canada: 3.50% Interest base Rate (Next meeting April 22nd)

High & Low of the month:

High: 1.9517

Low: 2.0608

Difference of cost on a $200k property:

CAD$ 5,425.08

GBP/AUD

Where is it going? The Aussie Dollar Update for March

It’s been another testing month for Sterling. Although interest rates were kept the same at 5.25%, the Bank of England minutes kept outlook lower with future cuts possible. House prices are again showing signs of more slowdowns with the RICS house price balance dropping for the seventh month in succession signaling more than half a year of negative market sentiment.

Australia is still booming, and the continued strong employment growth has eased concerns that recent interest rate hikes (to 7.25%) are harming the economy. But despite this continuing strength, prolonged global equity declines prompted renewed risk aversion this month, with speculators withdrawing their funds from commodities such as gold and minerals (key exports), resulting in the $AUD going above $2.20 for the first time since the beginning of February. This was an improvement of over 10 cents from the lows at the start of the month, giving migrants some long awaited good news!

So does this mean that the downward trend has now stopped? Not necessarily, as it could just be a corrective adjustment and we have already dropped back to around the $2.17 levels, but it is very hard to tell where it is going from here. There is still so much doubt in the market which is causing the volatility we are seeing, and the market has been moving as much as 4 to 5 cents a day, so many sleepless nights watching the computer screens no doubt!

The RBA did leave their rates on hold in their decision on April 1st in a widely expected move, and this could signal the tightening global credit conditions have started to filter through to Australia. However, as stated, the moves we have seen have largely been as a result of cautious speculators taking their profits and just biding their time, waiting to see what happens. Should risk appetite return, then we could easily see a continuation of the Aussie Dollar strength that has seen the rates drop so dramatically over the last 18 months.

You need to make a decision when to buy, and what your budgeted rate is. Many people will be renting for 6-12 months and feel they have time to watch the markets and hope they improve. HiFX have a fully regulated Australian office that can help you monitor the markets and work with you to achieve an agreeable rate, if this is a strategy that you wish to adopt.

Bear in mind, however, that there is no guarantee that your target rate will be hit. How much can you afford to gamble? If the rates were $2.00 in 12 months time then how does that affect your new life in Oz? Those who adopted a similar strategy this time last year and decided to gamble on the market have seen a significant drop in the rates and thus the amount of dollars they have to purchase a house and start their new life with.

There are different ways to buy currency when you are moving your funds abroad and many different things to consider, so you should start thinking about your options and watching the rates of exchange as early as possible. Even if you are not leaving for another 6-12 months, or will not be moving money over just yet, the more information you get at this stage the easier your decision about when to buy will be.

HiFX have a bespoke team who will happily talk you through your options in more detail and discuss a best fit strategy with you. For a free, no obligation consultation please call the Migration Team on + 44 (0)1753 859159 or email migration@hifx.co.uk.

GBP/NZD

Another Volatile Month for £ vs $NZD; What is happening with the Exchange Rate?

It’s been another testing month for Sterling. Although interest rates were kept the same at 5.25%, the Bank of England minutes kept outlook lower with future cuts possible. House prices are again showing signs of more slowdowns with the RICS house price balance dropping for the seventh month in succession signalling more than half a year of negative market sentiment.

There was, however, better news for those moving to New Zealand as the Dollar weakened against Sterling following sharp falls in commodity prices across the board. The aftermath of the Bear Sterns collapse in the US also aided the Pounds rally, bringing about renewed risk aversion and hence the unwinding of the carry trade, something New Zealand is particularly vulnerable to due to its 8.25% interest rates, the highest in the industrialised world.

This resulted in the Dollar losing over 10 cents against the Pound, going over $2.55 for the first time since January. The question on everyone’s lips is will this last? Have we seen a reversal in the overall downward trend of the last 12 months? It seems to be stuck in a range at the moment, between $2.45 and £2.55, but current market conditions makes it very difficult to predict where it will go from here.

Should the tightening global credit conditions filter through to New Zealand then that could have an adverse affect on their economy and as such the performance of the $NZD. There was some mixed data out of New Zealand in March, with encouraging growth figures and strong consumption and business investment, but less positive news from the NBNZ’s business confidence survey. However, the correlation between the strength of the currency and the carry trade is what has really been driving the market of late. Should risk appetite return, we could easily see the dollar strengthen again.

If you look at just the first 3 months of this year, there has already been a 20 cent difference between the high and the low, or $40,000 if you were moving £200,000 across! You need to make a decision when to buy, and what your budgeted rate is. Many people will be renting for 6-12 months and feel they have time to watch the markets and hope they improve. HiFX have an office in Auckland that can help you monitor the markets and work with you to achieve an agreeable rate, if this is a strategy that you wish to adopt.

Bear in mind, however, that there is no guarantee that your target rate will be hit. How much can you afford to gamble? If the rates were $2.20 in 12 months time then how does that affect your new life in NZ? Those who adopted a similar strategy this time last year and decided to gamble on the market have seen a significant drop in the rates and thus the amount of dollars they have to purchase a house and start their new life with.

There are many strategies available to minimise your risk when transferring funds, all of which will be explained clearly by your personalised dealer should you open a trading facility with HIFX. To discuss your requirements in more detail and for a free currency consultation please contact HiFX plc on 01753 859 159 or email info@hifx.co.uk.

Currency Market Commentary - Summary of January 2008

Tue, 1 Jan 2008 00:00:00 GMT

GBP/EUR

Key data out this month:

From the UK:

RICS House Prices for December. Previous -40.6 index

Nationwide Consumer Confidence

BoE MPC Interest Rate Announcement

Consumer Price Index

From the EU:

ECB Announces Interest Rates

Trichet speaks at ECB Monthly News Conf

Germany Unemployment Change

German Consumer Price Index

Impact of data in the market place:

January saw Sterling fall to an 11-year low against the Euro; with the value of €1 breaching 75 pence before retracing slightly lower to current levels, although Both the ECB and BoE declined to join the Fed in an emergency interest rate cut and the BoE made it clear from Governor’s King’s speech and from this months meeting minutes that drastic interest rate cuts would not be forthcoming in the face of higher inflation in the economy.

We still expect some rate cuts to materialise in the coming months and the UK economy still has a vulnerable feel for at least the first quarter of 2008, thus leaving GBP/EUR at risk of possible further falls.

UK Consumer confidence declined in December to the lowest in 10 months and retail sales slowed at its weakest rate in 12 month. Rising fuel bills and the lingering credit squeeze left consumers with lower disposable incomes, therefore leading to a sharp downturn in consumer spending.

Also house prices were confirmed to be falling at their fastest rate since the early 1990’s according to the latest RICS report. Nationwide house prices fell for a third consecutive month in January and Rightmove house prices fell to their lowest levels since December 2005.

Central bank rates:

UK (MPC) 5.50%

EU (ECB) 4.00%

High & Low of the month:

High: 1.3614

Low: 1.3130

Difference of cost on a €200k property:

High = £146,907.60

Low = £152,322.92

GBP/USD

Key data out this month:

From the UK:

Nationwide house Prices for January

BBA Mortgage Approvals for December

PPI input &output for December

RICS House Prices for December

Retail sales for December

From the US:

Interest rate cut

Consumer credit for November

Retail sales for December

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for January

Existing Home & New homes sales for December

Consumer confidence for January

Impact of data in the market place:

The US Dollar’s structural weakness over 2007 saw significant depreciation against Sterling and most notably the Euro, even more when the US Federal Reserve made a surprising, announcement of an emergency rate cut on the 22nd. The Fed cut by 0.75% from 4.25% down to 3.5%, the first emergency reduction since 9/11. And on the 31st of January, the US Federal Reserve decided to cut the Fed Funds rate by a further 0.5% to 3.0%. Since September the rate has been slashed by a massive 2.25%.

The key weaknesses of the US economy persist, with risks to economic growth firmly to the downside.

The committee took action after Asian and European stock markets tumbled citing concerns about a weakening economy and turmoil in the financial markets, all adding to signs of a US recession. While the initial reaction was relatively muted, the Dollar weakened against the Euro and Sterling, while the trend continued throughout the end of the month.

Central bank rates:

UK: (MPC) 5.50%

US: (FED) 3.00%

High & Low of the month:

High: 1.9957

Low: 1.9335

Difference of cost on a £200k property:

High: $399 140

Low: $386 700

EUR/USD

Key data out this month:

US Pending home Sales for November. Previous 3.7%. Actual -2.6%

EU ECB Interest Rate Announcement

US FOMC Interest Rate Announcement

Impact of data in the market place:

The upward trend of EUR/USD shows little sign of breaking as the US economy continues to remain under pressure moving into 2008. The minutes from the Fed’s December interest rate meeting indicated that further rate cuts would be necessary in 2008 due to the increasing difficulties in the credit markets and further economic slowdown. This highlighted the effects of the credit squeeze had spilled over to consumer spending – a key driver of growth for the US economy. However, the Fed faced the predicament that lowering borrowing costs will fuel inflationary pressures. Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, had signaled at the beginning of the month that the Fed was ready to take aggressive action to fend off recession; this resulted in 2 interest rate cuts (one being an “Emergency rate cut”) from 4.25% to 3% in the space of 7 days. This emergency rate cut was the first since 9/11 and the largest cut in rates for 26 years. It will be a waiting game to see whether this drastic rate cut has the desired effect of reversing the slowdown. Furthermore, the sub prime mortgage lending problem that originated in the US remains an issue in the economy, as the housing sector shows little sign of a turn around.

The European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates on hold this month. The Euro is being supported largely by weaker data from the US and UK, rather than key data from the Eurozone. Whilst all three economies begin to suffer the effects of slowing growth the Eurozone seems to be a lot more concerned with Inflationary pressures and has not ruled out a rate hike in 2008. We can expect continued Euro strength and a continued EUR/USD uptrend going forward the HICP (measure of inflation in the Eurozone) came out higher than expected at 3.2% (targeted at 2.0%) highlighting that the ECB will certainly not be cutting interest rates in the near future

Central bank rates:

US: 3.00% Interest Base Rate

EU: 4.00% Interest base Rate

High & Low of the month:

High: 1.4922

Low: 1.4364

Difference of cost on a $200k property:

€5,206.95

GBP/AED

Key data out this month:

Finance ministers from the six-nation GCC (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) dismissed the abandonment or movement of their pegs to the declining US dollar.

Impact of data in the market place:

After all of the recent volatility experienced due to the market expectations of a decision to unpeg, the market has once again begun to settle. AED remains pegged to the USD at a rate of 3.67 and therefore the movements in the currency mirror that of GBP/USD.

High & Low of the month:

High: 7.33

Low: 7.10

Difference of cost on a £200k property:

High: 1466000 AED

Low: 1420000 AED

GBP/CAD

Key data out this month:

Canada

Gross Domestic Product (Month of Month (MoM)) Nov.Forecast 0.1% Actual 0.1%
Consumer Price Index. Both figures were in-line with expectations – MoM 0.1% and Year on Year (YoY) 2.4%.
Interest rate announcement. 0.25% basis point cut to 4.00%.
Retail Sales. Expected at 0.3% came out at 0.7%.
Housing Starts. Forecast at 221k actual 187.5k

UK

Retail Sales. Forecast for 0.2%, actual -0.4%.
Consumer Price Index came out at 2.1% - expected at 2%.
Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement. Rates held at 5.5%.
Bank of England minutes released showing 8:1 vote to keep rates steady.

Impact of data in the market place:

A very choppy month for GBP/CAD with some big movements on the back of data releases. The Bank of Canada’s move to cut rates by a quarter of a percent may help to preserve the longest economic expansion since World War II even as the U.S, Canada’s largest trading partner, slumps on the back of the credit crisis. 30% of economic output in Canada is covered by exports such as lumber and cars – approximately 80% of these sales are to U.S customers. High Retail Sales figures were boosted by strong fuel prices and the general outlook among consumers remain positive.

The Bank of England minutes showed an unsurprising 8-1 vote in favour of a hold. Whilst uber-dove David Blanchflower sited a “greater risk of a sharp slowdown” for his vote in favour of a cut, the minutes showed that the Bank of England is becoming concerned about inflation amidst rocketing energy and food costs.UK consumer price inflation was released above the Bank of England’s target (2%) for the third consecutive month with the biggest upward effect coming from food prices.

Market conditions have been volatile based on the stark contrast between the UK and Canada’s current economic conditions and room for economic growth. This in turn creates a lot of uncertainty in those who need to trade Canadian Dollars. The positive side of this for clients wishing to migrate to Canada is that the economic conditions out there are remaining strong despite the general negative outlook across most of the developed world at present. However, with such large movements being seen it is important to remember the impact that currency fluctuations can have when converting funds. As seen below clients transferring 250,000CAD will have seen a difference of over £6000 in one month.

Central bank rates:

Bank of Canada: 4.00%

Bank of England: 5.50%

High & Low of the month:

High: 17/01/08 - 2.0351

Low: 04/01/08 - 1.9394

Difference of cost on a 250kCAD property:

£6,061.76

GBP/AUD

A choppy start to 2008 as the $AUD shows more volatility:

The New Year started where 2007 left off; more volatility in an increasingly uncertain market, making it even harder to guesstimate where the rates are going! Starting 2008 at around the 2.28 levels, the dollar continued to benefit from a weaker pound and the rates fell to just under $2.17, levels not seen for over 10 years! Only a year ago it was trading at over $2.50 to the pound, but ignoring an uncharacteristic move in August, it has been on a progressive march downwards ever since.

There was more strong data out from Australia, with low unemployment, strong CPI inflationary data and very bullish housing and retail figures. We did see a brief correction in this downward movement, as investors took some of their profits from the so called “carry trades” and this pushed the rates back up to around the 2.28 levels again. However, these gains were short lived and, as expected, the dollar strengthened in the last week of January, finishing the month at around 2.18 – 2.19.

So how low can it go? Difficult to say given the current conditions, an answer that I appreciate has been given for the last few months. The UK are looking at a possible rate cut in February, down to 5.25%, in a bid to calm fears that the UK will follow the plight of the US. The RBA, however, may need to raise their interest rates in an effort to contain inflationary pressures and control their booming economy. This may well be a continuing trend until they can see domestic demand starting to suffer under the weight of a creaking global economy.

The moves we are seeing illustrate just how much the markets can react and what a risky business buying and selling currency can be without the proper planning. It can be such a difficult decision deciding when to buy your currency, and whether to leave it in the UK hoping that the rate will improve, especially when it is your life savings.

There are, however, ways in which to considerably reduce this risk:

The key is to address your exposure from the outset and get a strategy in place that suits you. One popular option is what is known as a forward contract, or ‘buy now pay later’ method, whereby you can lock into a rate of exchange with just a 10% deposit, for delivery up to 2 years in the future. If you had locked in at the beginning of January 07, you would have achieved around the 2.50 mark. In ’08 that figure would have been about 2.27, a massive 23 cent difference, or $56,000 on £200,000! Put into perspective, that is your new house furnishings or even a very nice new car. Even if you take the difference in January of 11 cents, that would be a potential saving, or loss, of $22,000 on that £200,000….in just one month!

The forward contract holds many benefits; you do not need all of your funds available (the majority of peoples funds are tied up in property for example), it gives you peace of mind knowing you have secured a rate and know what you are going to achieve, and it is flexible and can accommodate changes in the time scale originally agreed due to house sales falling through, etcetera.

Of course, it is always tempting to wait for a better rate and only you can decide how much of your wealth you want to expose to risk (you may decide to fix an exchange rate for half or all of your assets). For those of you willing to take a bit of a gamble, you can take out a “market order” or target rate, which is where you set a level at which you want to buy your currency. If and when this level is reached, the money is bought, but obviously it holds the risk that your target won’t be achieved so you will simply have to buy at the prevailing rate on the day.

Some people may not have the money available to them for a forward contract. The UK housing market is currently experiencing a slow down, with houses taking longer to sell, so many people will leave the majority of their funds in the UK. HiFX have an office in Sydney, which is fully ASIC regulated, and an account can be set up with them before you leave the UK, making the transition as smooth as possible
For those of you who are leaving for Australia over the coming months, forward planning is of the utmost importance and could save you thousands of pounds to start your new life. For a free, no obligation consultation about your situation and the options available please contact the migration team at HiFX on +44 (0) 1753 859159, or email migration@hifx.co.uk.

GBP/NZD

$NZD Continues to Strengthen in an Uncertain and Volatile Market:

As we moved into 2008 the $NZD was still experiencing the volatility it suffered throughout 2007 in an increasingly uncertain market. It moved over 16 cents in January, closing at just over the $2.50 levels. Ignoring the blip caused by the sub prime crisis in America in August, the Dollar has been strengthening against the Pound since midway through 2006, where it reached a peak of 3.06.

One of the determining factors of this continued strength has been the large interest rate differential, with NZ rates being at 8.25%. This makes it very attractive for investors who are seeking high returns on their funds, and lends itself to what is known as the “carry trade”, where people borrow in a low yielding currency and invest in one such as the New Zealand Dollar which offers such lucrative returns. Despite deteriorating global growth and market turbulence, the RBNZ kept their rates at 8.25% this month, citing high inflationary figures and an unchanged outlook for the NZ economy from previous months.

The question is, of course, how much lower can it go? Unfortunately this is very difficult to say given the current conditions, an answer that I appreciate has been given for the last few months. The UK are looking at a possible rate cut in February, down to 5.25%, in a bid to calm fears that the UK will follow the plight of the US. The RBNZ’s stance will depend mostly on how the impending US-led global slowdown affects commodity prices, and therefore inflation and growth in New Zealand. In 2005, the rates dropped to just over 2.41, and that was when the Pound was a lot stronger than it is now. In 1996, the rate was just under 2.17!

The moves we are seeing illustrate just how the markets can react and what a risky business buying and selling currency can be without the proper planning. It can be such a difficult decision deciding when to buy your currency, and whether to leave it in the UK hoping that the rate will improve, especially when it is your life savings.

There are, however, ways in which to considerably reduce this risk:

The key is to address your exposure from the outset and get a strategy in place that suits you. One popular option is what is known as a forward contract, or ‘buy now pay later’ method, whereby you can lock into a rate of exchange with just a 10% deposit, for delivery up to 2 years in the future. If you had locked in at the end of January 07, you would have achieved over 2.90. In ’08 that figure would have been about 2.45, a massive 45 cent difference, or $90,000 on £200,000! Even if you take the difference in January of 16 cents, that would be a potential saving, or loss, of $32,000 on that £200,000….in just one month! Imagine how that could change the start of your new life?

For those of you who are leaving for New Zealand over the coming months, forward planning is of the utmost importance and could save you thousands of pounds to start your new life. For a free, no obligation consultation about your situation and the options available please contact the migration team at HiFX on +44 (0) 1753 859159, or email migration@hifx.co.uk.