A New Dawn

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Barack Obama wins a landslide victory in the US presidential elections.Today, we wake up to a new President-elect of the United States of America. Thank goodness. At last, Americans can travel the world and not feel embarrassed to open their mouths, lest someone hears their accent and vilifies them for it (I met an American couple at Heathrow Airport once, who were pretending they were Canadian, just to avoid abuse).

For today, Barack Obama won a landslide victory for the Democrats against the Republican candidate John McCain. But it’s much more than that. Yes, it symbolises the culmination and vindication of a long and hard journey from slavery to the White House for African-Americans, but let’s not forget the main reason Obama made it there. He’s got a brain. Which is a lot more than can be said for the inarticulate buffoon that goes by the name of George W. Bush.

Lest we forget, this is the kind of thing that Bush came out with during his time in the top job:

“I’m doing a better job of talking to each other. The left hand (gesturing to his right hand!) knows what the left hand is doing.”

“Rarely is the question asked are…er…our…er…is our children learning.”

“In order for us to get the framework, the groundwork, not the framework, for the groundwork, to discuss a framework…er…for peace…er…alright?”

And it’s not just Bush who’s going to be sidelined from influence, but also his cronies. Who can forget the quote from former Secretary of Defense (or should that be Attack?) Donald Rumsfeld, during a press briefing in the year running up to the misguided war in Iraq

“There are known knowns, there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns, that is to say there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns, there are things we do not know we don’t know.”

‘But what’s all this got to do with investment, this is supposed to be a property blog, isn’t it?’ I hear you ask. The answer is simple. War is bad for investment. Peace and stability, however, are good for investment. And there can not have been a more war-oriented administration in recent times, than the Bush one.

Aside of course from all the thousands of innocent people killed, maimed and displaced, and the needless death of service personnel, war has a unique capacity to starve a country or region of investment. Since the Good Friday agreement of 1998, Northern Ireland has seen unprecedented levels of investment and prosperity.

Sure, there are still some underlying tensions, but these things take time, and living in peace does wonders for economic prosperity. Who would have invested in property on the west coast of Croatia for example, while the former Yugoslavia was tearing itself apart? Yet when peace broke out, it became a thriving and prosperous economic hotspot.

Certainly, the expectation on Barack Obama’s shoulders is enormous, and inevitably some of that expectation will remain unfulfilled – there’s only so much one man can do. But if he can move America towards a more conciliatory and less militaristic approach to international relations, then areas like the Middle East and Central Africa may one day act as beacons for peace, stability, and prosperity, rather than hotspots for war, conflict, and impoverishment. A new dawn? Let’s hope so…

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